A GvilleTX Newsroom report
A cold front moving toward Texoma should bring a chance of thunderstorms Sunday, Sept. 20, and pull temperatures back toward late-September norms, according to the National Weather Service forecast issued Sept. 18.
The weather service put Gainesville and the rest of Cooke County at a 20% chance of storms Sunday, with a high near 97 after a Saturday of 98. Odds ran higher west and north: 60% at Wichita Falls, 80% at Oklahoma City, 10% at Durant. Forecasters expected storm chances to hold across Texoma into the following week. Some storms along the front could turn strong or severe, they wrote in their Sept. 18 morning discussion, though they did not look for widespread severe weather.
The same front, very different odds
Forecast chance of precipitation for Sunday, Sept. 20.
Source: National Weather Service forecast, Sept. 18, 2026
From Monday through Thursday, the weather service expects readings nearer seasonal averages. Southern parts of its forecast area could stay hot Monday if the front is slow to arrive.
Relief would follow a long run of triple-digit days west of the county line. Preliminary weather service data show Wichita Falls at 100 degrees or better on 17 of the month's first 18 days, with Sept. 10 the lone exception at 97. The month has averaged about 10 degrees above normal there. The 108-degree reading on Sept. 12 broke that date's record of 106, set in 1930. In September 2025, by the weather service's monthly summary, the city never got past 96.
| Wichita Falls, Sept. 1–18 | Preliminary NWS data |
| --- | --- |
| Days at or above 100°F | 17 |
| Average daily high | 102.9°F |
| Average temperature vs. normal | +10.5°F |
| Year-to-date rainfall | 15.14 in., 5.50 below normal |
September days at Wichita Falls are running far hotter than last year or normal
Average daily high temperature at Wichita Falls: 2026 figure is preliminary and covers Sept. 1–18; 2025 and the normal cover the full month.
Source: National Weather Service climate data; 1991–2020 September normal
The year has also run short on rain. Wichita Falls had measured 15.14 inches of precipitation through Sept. 18, about five and a half inches below normal, weather service records show. Ahead of the front, forecasters flagged elevated wildfire conditions, citing very dry vegetation along with winds of 10 to 20 mph and afternoon humidity of 25% to 35%.
Heat has pressed on this region before. Weather service climate history records 100 days at or above 100 degrees at Wichita Falls during the 2011 heat wave and 63 at Oklahoma City, annual records for both cities. The federal Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin reported that Wichita Falls set a September temperature record of 112 degrees on Sept. 8, 2023, passing 111 from September 2000, and that Lawton reached a September record of 111 the same day. The Bulletin also counted 20 days of 90 degrees or better at Wichita Falls in October 2024, a record the city shared with Waco.
NOAA's 2022 Texas climate assessment, drawn from observations through 2020, found almost 1.5 degrees of statewide warming since the early 1900s and especially frequent very warm nights in the 2010s, but no overall trend in extremely hot days across the full record. It projects hotter extremes and heavier downpours for the state, and says higher temperatures will dry soils faster during dry stretches, deepening droughts that occur naturally. Changes in annual rainfall, the assessment says, remain uncertain.
Wichita Falls hit 100 again on Sept. 18, 12 degrees above normal for the date and one short of the record set in 1977, the weather service's daily climate report shows.
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