Cooke County flood watch runs through Friday as rain threatens Texoma

Gainesville and Cooke County face possible flooding from heavy rain through Friday morning, Oct. 2, 2026, under a National Weather Service watch issued Sept. 30. The agency’s watch notice also includes neighboring Montague, Grayson and Fannin counties.

Several inches of rain were expected across the North and Central Texas watch area in the agency’s Wednesday forecast. The estimates cover the broader watch area; they are not rainfall measurements or a prediction specifically for Gainesville. The September 30 forecast projected these amounts through Friday morning:

| Forecast coverage | Rainfall |

|---|---:|

| Watch-area average | 1.5–3 inches |

| Isolated locations | Up to 5 inches |

West of Interstate 35, severe thunderstorms were another concern Wednesday in the Texas portion of Texoma, according to the weather service. Forecasters identified the possibility of winds strong enough to cause damage. Small hail remained possible, as did a brief tornado.

By Wednesday night, rain and thunderstorms were expected to reach more of North Texas, including Texoma, as the activity spread east. The weather service placed heavy rainfall and flooding at the top of its overnight concerns in that same forecast.

For Thursday, Oct. 1, the Storm Prediction Center designated no areas at risk for organized severe thunderstorms in its outlook issued at 11:45 p.m. CDT Wednesday. Gusty winds remained possible with thunderstorms between Kansas and eastern Texas, according to the center’s outlook.

A watch signals the possibility of flooding without establishing that it will happen, according to the weather service’s explanation of flood alerts. A warning signals that flooding has started or is about to begin.

The agency’s road-safety guidance says vehicles are involved in most flood deaths. A small car can be swept away by fast-moving water about a foot deep, the weather service says.

The regional weather pattern involved low pressure advancing eastward and remnants of tropical system Polo, according to the weather service’s September 30 Tulsa forecast discussion. That office expected storm chances to rise across eastern Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon and evening, with repeated opportunities for heavy rain overnight and Thursday.

Over the longer term, days delivering at least two inches of precipitation have increased in frequency across the Southern Great Plains, the Fifth National Climate Assessment reports. The assessment describes substantial variation from one year to another. It also finds that those rainfall events occur less often in the region’s western half than in its eastern half.