Cooler November forecast replaces summer's triple-digit run; Grayson County has no burn ban, but fires still need a call first
Weather service forecasts show highs in the 60s and 70s for Gainesville through next Wednesday. Grayson County requires residents to check in with the county before any outdoor burn.
The heat is gone from Gainesville's forecast. The National Weather Service on Thursday projected afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s through next Wednesday. In Grayson County, the fire marshal's page showed no burn ban in effect as of Thursday. Residents there still must clear each outdoor fire with the county before lighting it.
Thursday's forecast called for a high of 77 degrees in Gainesville, according to the weather service. The agency logged a predawn reading of 49 degrees at Gainesville Municipal Airport. None of the daily highs in its outlook through Nov. 11 comes near 100 degrees.
The outlook does include some rain, though the odds are low. Forecasters gave Gainesville a 20% chance of showers Thursday evening before midnight. Sherman's forecast carried the same odds Thursday night and again Monday morning.
| Location and date | NWS forecast, issued Nov. 5, 2026 |
| --- | --- |
| Gainesville, Nov. 5 | High 77°F; 20% chance of showers before midnight |
| Gainesville, Nov. 6–11 | Highs 65–76°F |
| Sherman, Nov. 5 | High 76°F; 20% chance of showers at night |
| Sherman, Nov. 9 | 20% chance of showers in the morning |
Grayson County's outdoor-burning page tells anyone planning a fire to call the county Communications Center on the day of the burn. The caller must register the address and get confirmation that burning is allowed. A responsible person has to stay with the fire, the county says. Inside Sherman, the city fire marshal's office prohibits unauthorized open burning and offers a permit application.
The county had stricter rules in place earlier this year. Commissioners Court records show a 5-0 vote on Aug. 11 on an order regulating outdoor burning because of drought conditions, listed as Order 26-030. A notice the city of Gunter posted the next day said the county ban covered unincorporated areas through Sept. 30, with provisions to end it early or extend it. The notice does not mention a ban in November.
Bans remain in place elsewhere in Texas. Texas A&M Forest Service data posted by Tarrant County Emergency Services District 1 showed 133 county burn bans on Nov. 4, including Ellis, Parker, Jack, Palo Pinto and Rockwall counties.
Texas county burn bans in effect on Nov. 4, 2026
Grayson County's fire marshal page showed no burn ban in effect as of Nov. 5.
The weather service's Sept. 22 update counted 52 days of at least 100 degrees at Dallas/Fort Worth in 2026. That total provisionally ties 1954 for fifth-most, and it falls short of the record of 71 days, set in 2011. The agency also lists a 13-day run of triple-digit days from Sept. 4 to 16 this year. The longest such streak on record is 42 days, from June 23 to Aug. 3, 1980.
This year's triple-digit summer fell well short of the 2011 record
The chart loads when visible. All values are in the table.
National Weather Service Fort Worth, Sept. 22, 2026 update
Provisionally tied for fifth-most
View as a table
| Label | Days at or above 100°F |
|---|---|
| 2011 | 71 days |
| 2026 | 52 days |
| 1954 | 52 days |
A 2024 Environmental Protection Agency climate-indicators report examined heat waves in 50 major U.S. cities. It found the average city went from about two heat waves a year in the 1960s to six a year in the 2010s and 2020s, and that the average heat-wave season grew by about 46 days.
To gauge fire danger, the Texas A&M Forest Service uses the Keetch–Byram Drought Index, which runs from 0 for saturated soil to 800 for maximum moisture depletion. The agency cautions against using the index alone, saying wildfire potential also depends on vegetation, fuel moisture, weather and terrain.
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