Drought on the record in Grayson County as wheat planting nears; most fertilizers still above last year's prices

Drought is on the public record in Grayson County as wheat planting season approaches in Texoma, and most fertilizers in a national survey still cost more than they did a year ago. County commissioners approved outdoor-burning restrictions Aug. 11 that run through Sept. 30, citing drought conditions, according to the commissioners court's meeting record. Oklahoma State University Extension reported Aug. 31 that dry conditions and warm soils made early wheat planting unlikely, and DTN's Sept. 7–11 retailer survey found seven of eight fertilizers priced above last September.

None of those records show what any one Grayson County grower is paying for fertilizer or whether a particular field has gone unplanted. The burn order documents conditions countywide, not losses on individual farms.

The price picture is mixed. Six of the eight products in DTN's survey cost less than a month earlier, and the service's price history shows national average urea fell from $866 a ton in late April to $658 in early September, still about 4% above the same point in 2025. In an American Farm Bureau Federation survey in April, about seven in ten responding farmers said they could not afford all the fertilizer they needed; among Southern respondents the share approached eight in ten. FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson announced an industry-wide investigation of fertilizer prices May 28 in prepared remarks for a Texas Corn Producers Association field hearing. The announcement opened an inquiry; it made no finding of unlawful conduct.

OSU's management calendar puts the preferred planting period for wheat that cattle graze before a grain harvest around mid-September, with grain-only wheat planted in October. Seeding into dry soil carries an establishment risk, the university warns: a small rain can germinate the seed without supplying enough moisture for seedlings to emerge or survive the next dry spell. OSU reported in October 2024 that preliminary trials showed satisfactory grain-only yields were still possible from November sowing after an unfavorable early fall.

Little of the county's farmland is irrigated. The 2022 Census of Agriculture counted roughly 2,850 farms in Grayson County on about 395,000 acres, including about 185,000 acres of cropland and about 176,000 acres of pasture. Only about 2,500 acres were irrigated.

Grayson County has seen drought coincide with a late planting season before, according to its own Extension crop report, which described persistent heat and drought on Sept. 18, 2023, and said no wheat or oats had been planted as of Oct. 2 that year. The same September 2023 report said most soybean fields had been baled for hay because pods failed to fill, and some livestock producers had started supplemental hay feeding because pasture production or quality was low.

NOAA's May 19 Southern Plains assessment dates the current agricultural drought in Oklahoma and northern Texas to August 2025 and says it intensified through winter and early spring, damaging rangeland and crop production. USDA rated nearly two-thirds of Texas winter wheat poor or very poor as of May 31, a worse reading than Oklahoma's or the nation's.

Cooke County acted a day earlier. The City of Lindsay's official notices list a countywide burn ban dated Aug. 10.