Hot Tuesday gives way to midweek storms and heavy rain across Texoma

By GvilleTX Newsroom

Gainesville was forecast to reach the low 90s on Tuesday, Sept. 29. After that, the chance of rain and thunderstorms was expected to rise to about even Tuesday night and Wednesday, according to a National Weather Service forecast issued Sept. 26. The agency's Fort Worth office expected heavier rain across North Texas later in the week and said the risk of flash floods would grow on Wednesday and Thursday.

The Gainesville forecast showed only a slight chance of storms Tuesday afternoon. That chance rose after dark and stayed at that level through Wednesday.

In a forecast discussion issued Monday evening, the Fort Worth office said 2 to 5 inches of rain could fall over wide areas of North and Central Texas from Wednesday through Friday, with some places getting more. The office expected the flash-flood risk to increase Wednesday and Thursday, especially in places where repeated rounds of heavy rain crossed the same ground.

The weather service office in Norman, Okla., said severe thunderstorms were possible Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.

Norman forecasters said two weather features were driving the change. An upper-level trough was moving into the southwestern United States. The office expected the trough to combine with the remains of Hurricane Polo and form a slow-moving low-pressure system.

Chances of rain differed across Texoma. The Norman office's Monday forecast made rain on Wednesday nearly certain in Wichita Falls. Durant, Okla., had about even odds. Both cities were expected to reach the mid-90s on Tuesday. The Fort Worth office forecast similar Tuesday highs for Denton, McKinney and Dallas–Fort Worth.

The week began with unusual heat. The weather service's daily climate report showed that Wichita Falls reached 96 degrees by 5 p.m. Monday, Sept. 28. That reading was 12 degrees above the normal high of 84 degrees for that date. The Wichita Falls record for Sept. 29 is 104 degrees, set in 1977.

Cooler air was expected to follow the rain. The Norman office said Friday highs across its forecast area would likely stay below 80 degrees as the storm system and a cold front moved through.

Federal climate summaries give longer background. NOAA's 2022 assessment for Texas reported that statewide temperatures have risen almost 1.5 degrees since the early 1900s. It found that days with at least 3 inches of rain were well above their long-term average from 2015 to 2020. It also projected more extreme rain in the future, but it said changes in total yearly rainfall were uncertain. NOAA's 2022 assessment for Oklahoma also projected more extreme rain. It said this could bring more flooding and soil erosion and send more runoff into streams and lakes.