Main storm line expected near Gainesville around 11 p.m. Monday

Severe thunderstorms are possible across Texoma on Monday, but for Gainesville the main storm line is not expected until late at night. National Weather Service forecasters in Fort Worth project that line to reach Interstate 35 around 11 p.m. and keep moving east through the overnight hours.

The Storm Prediction Center's outlook issued Nov. 1 put North Texas and Oklahoma in a slight-risk area for severe thunderstorms on Monday, Nov. 2. The center named damaging winds and a few tornadoes as the chief threats. NOAA counts a thunderstorm as severe when it produces gusts of 58 mph or stronger, hail at least an inch across, or a tornado.

The regional outlook centers on late afternoon and evening, though it does not fix a single peak hour for every town in Texoma. The Fort Worth office's Monday forecast discussion explains why storms should arrive late along I-35. Forecasters there expected a layer of warm air aloft to hold back storm growth through much of the afternoon. Storms were then forecast to form along the dryline northwest of the office's coverage area.

The first storms could be supercells capable of large hail, damaging wind and a tornado, the office said. Once they merge into a line, wind damage becomes the main concern.

In the Cooke County forecast issued at 2:08 a.m. Monday, Gainesville's rain chances climb from 20% in the afternoon to 90% Monday night. Those figures describe the odds of rain falling, not the odds of a storm turning severe. Fort Worth forecasters put Monday-night rain chances at 80% for Denton and Dallas–Fort Worth and 90% for McKinney and Paris.

| Location and period | Rain chance |

| --- | ---: |

| Gainesville, Monday afternoon | 20% |

| Gainesville, Monday night | 90% |

| Denton, Monday night | 80% |

| Dallas–Fort Worth, Monday night | 80% |

| McKinney, Monday night | 90% |

| Paris, Monday night | 90% |

The Weather Service office in Tulsa expects a storm line to cross eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas from late Monday evening into early Tuesday. Damaging winds are that office's main severe concern, and it described the tornado threat as limited.

The Weather Service office in Norman calls September through November a secondary severe-weather season for Oklahoma and western North Texas. Its climate explanation says fall episodes generally come less often and hit less hard than spring ones. Agency records still list an EF4 tornado on Nov. 4, 2022, that tracked about 45 miles through Lamar County, Texas, and Choctaw County, Okla., with one injury.

In Cooke County, a Denton Police Department report documents the EF3 tornado that struck Valley View on May 25, 2024. It damaged a manufactured-home neighborhood and a travel plaza, and Denton officers helped with rescue operations, according to the report.

Fort Worth forecasters expect the storms to move fast enough to limit flash flooding even where heavy rain falls. They expect the storms to leave the office's forecast region around 8 a.m. Tuesday. The Cooke County forecast calls for a sunny, cooler and less humid Tuesday, with highs near 70 and clear skies Tuesday night, with lows in the upper 40s. The Storm Prediction Center's Tuesday outlook shifts its marginal-risk area to a band running from far eastern Texas and central Louisiana north into southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, where damaging gusts and a brief tornado are possible.